Correction: High seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers 8 months after the first wave in Aden, Yemen.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000767.].

High mortality rates among COVID-19 intensive care patients in Iraq: insights from a retrospective cohort study at Médecins Sans Frontières supported hospital in Baghdad.

Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the challenges of the healthcare system in Iraq, which has limited intensive care unit beds, medical personnel, and equipment, contributing to high infection rates and mortality. The main purpose of the study was to describe the clinical characteristics, the length of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay, and the mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU during the first wave and two subsequent surges, spanning from September 2020 to October 2021, in addition to identify potential risk factors for ICU mortality. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from COVID-19 patients admitted to the COVID-19 ICU at Al-Kindi Ministry of Health hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, between September 2020 and October 2021. Results: The study included 936 COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU at Al-Kindi Hospital. Results showed a high mortality rate throughout all waves, with 60% of deaths due to respiratory failure. Older age, male gender, pre-existing medical conditions, ICU procedures, and complications were associated with increased odds of ICU mortality. The study also found a decrease in the number of complications and ICU procedures between the first and subsequent waves. There was no significant difference in the length of hospital stay between patients admitted during different waves. Conclusion: Despite improvements in critical care practices, the mortality rate did not significantly decrease during the second and third waves of the pandemic. The study highlights the challenges of high mortality rates among critical COVID-19 patients in low-resource settings and the importance of effective data collection to monitor clinical presentations and identify opportunities for improvement in ICU care.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and retrospective mortality in two African settings: Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

Although seroprevalence studies have demonstrated the wide circulation of SARS-COV-2 in African countries, the impact on population health in these settings is still poorly understood. Using representative samples of the general population, we evaluated retrospective mortality and seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Lubumbashi and Abidjan. The studies included retrospective mortality surveys and nested anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence surveys. In Lubumbashi the study took place during April-May 2021 and in Abidjan the survey was implemented in two phases: July-August 2021 and October-November 2021. Crude mortality rates were stratified between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods and further investigated by age group and COVID waves. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was quantified by rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) and laboratory-based testing (ELISA in Lubumbashi and ECLIA in Abidjan). In Lubumbashi, the crude mortality rate (CMR) increased from 0.08 deaths per 10 000 persons per day (pre-pandemic) to 0.20 deaths per 10 000 persons per day (pandemic period). Increases were particularly pronounced among <5 years old. In Abidjan, no overall increase was observed during the pandemic period (pre-pandemic: 0.05 deaths per 10 000 persons per day; pandemic: 0.07 deaths per 10 000 persons per day). However, an increase was observed during the third wave (0.11 deaths per 10 000 persons per day). The estimated seroprevalence in Lubumbashi was 15.7% (RDT) and 43.2% (laboratory-based). In Abidjan, the estimated seroprevalence was 17.4% (RDT) and 72.9% (laboratory-based) during the first phase of the survey and 38.8% (RDT) and 82.2% (laboratory-based) during the second phase of the survey. Although circulation of SARS-CoV-2 seems to have been extensive in both settings, the public health impact varied. The increases, particularly among the youngest age group, suggest indirect impacts of COVID and the pandemic on population health. The seroprevalence results confirmed substantial underdetection of cases through the national surveillance systems.

Genomic Microevolution of Vibrio cholerae O1, Lake Tanganyika Basin, Africa.

Africa's Lake Tanganyika basin is a cholera hotspot. During 2001-2020, Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates obtained from the Democratic Republic of the Congo side of the lake belonged to 2 of the 5 clades of the AFR10 sublineage. One clade became predominant after acquiring a parC mutation that decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin.

Differential symptomology of possible and confirmed Ebola virus disease infection in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In its earliest phases, Ebola virus disease's rapid-onset, high fever, and gastrointestinal symptoms are largely indistinguishable from other infectious illnesses. We aimed to characterise the clinical indicators associated with Ebola virus disease to improve outbreak response. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, we assessed routinely collected data from individuals with possible Ebola virus disease attending 30 Ebola health facilities in two provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo between Aug 1, 2018, and Aug 28, 2019. We used logistic regression analysis to model the probability of Ebola infection across 34 clinical variables and four types of possible Ebola virus disease exposures: contact with an individual known to have Ebola virus disease, attendance at any funeral, health facility consultation, or consultation with an informal health practitioner. FINDINGS: Data for 24 666 individuals were included. If a patient presented to care in the early symptomatic phase (ie, days 0-2), Ebola virus disease positivity was most associated with previous exposure to an individual with Ebola virus disease (odds ratio [OR] 11·9, 95% CI 9·1-15·8), funeral attendance (2·1, 1·6-2·7), or health facility consultations (2·1, 1·6-2·8), rather than clinical parameters. If presentation occurred on day 3 or later (after symptom onset), bleeding at an injection site (OR 33·9, 95% CI 12·7-101·3), bleeding gums (7·5, 3·7-15·4), conjunctivitis (2·4, 1·7-3·4), asthenia (1·9, 1·5-2·3), sore throat (1·8, 1·3-2·4), dysphagia (1·8, 1·4-2·3), and diarrhoea (1·6, 1·3-1·9) were additional strong predictors of Ebola virus disease. Some Ebola virus disease-specific signs were less prevalent among vaccinated individuals who were positive for Ebola virus disease when compared with the unvaccinated, such as dysphagia (-47%, p=0·0024), haematemesis (-90%, p=0·0131), and bleeding gums (-100%, p=0·0035). INTERPRETATION: Establishing the exact time an individual first had symptoms is essential to assessing their infection risk. An individual's exposure history remains of paramount importance, especially in the early phase. Ebola virus disease vaccination reduces symptom severity and should also be considered when assessing the likelihood of infection. These findings about symptomatology should be translated into practice during triage and should inform testing and quarantine procedures. FUNDING: Médecins Sans Frontières and its research affiliate Epicentre.

Effectiveness of case-area targeted interventions including vaccination on the control of epidemic cholera: protocol for a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera outbreaks in fragile settings are prone to rapid expansion. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs) have been proposed as a rapid and efficient response strategy to halt or substantially reduce the size of small outbreaks. CATI aims to deliver synergistic interventions (eg, water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions, vaccination, and antibiotic chemoprophylaxis) to households in a 100-250 m 'ring' around primary outbreak cases. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We report on a protocol for a prospective observational study of the effectiveness of CATI. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) plans to implement CATI in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Cameroon, Niger and Zimbabwe. This study will run in parallel to each implementation. The primary outcome is the cumulative incidence of cholera in each CATI ring. CATI will be triggered immediately on notification of a case in a new area. As with most real-world interventions, there will be delays to response as the strategy is rolled out. We will compare the cumulative incidence among rings as a function of response delay, as a proxy for performance. Cross-sectional household surveys will measure population-based coverage. Cohort studies will measure effects on reducing incidence among household contacts and changes in antimicrobial resistance. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The ethics review boards of MSF and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have approved a generic protocol. The DRC and Niger-specific versions have been approved by the respective national ethics review boards. Approvals are in process for Cameroon and Zimbabwe. The study findings will be disseminated to the networks of national cholera control actors and the Global Task Force for Cholera Control using meetings and policy briefs, to the scientific community using journal articles, and to communities via community meetings.

High seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers 8 months after the first wave in Aden, Yemen.

The true burden of COVID-19 in Yemen is underestimated. The healthcare system is dysfunctional and there is a high shortage of health care workers in the country. Testing for SARS-CoV-2 remains limited and official surveillance data is restricted to those who are severe or highly suspected. In this study, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) aimed to conduct serological screening using rapid tests for asymptomatic staff at the MSF Aden Trauma Center to determine the SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity. Four months after the peak of the first wave, we offered all the staff at the MSF Aden Trauma Center PCR if symptomatic, and a baseline SARS-CoV-2 serology screening followed by follow-up screenings. A final round was scheduled four months after the baseline. A rapid serology lateral flow test, NG-Test IgM-IgG was used in all rounds and in the final round, an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA) (Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify risk factors for seropositivity. The level of agreement between the different serology assays used was investigated. Overall 69 out of 356 participants (19.4%, 95% CI 17.9-20.8) tested positive by NG-Test between September and November 2020. A sub-sample of 161 staff members were retested in January 2021. Of these, the NG-Test detected only 13 positive cases, whereas the ECLIA detected 109 positive cases. The adjusted seroprevalence by ECLIA was 59% (95%CI 52.2-65.9). The non-medical staff had significantly lower odds of seropositivity compared to the medical staff (AOR 0.43, 95% CI 0.15-0.7, p<0.001). The positive percent agreement between the two tests was very low (11%). Our results suggest a very high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in healthcare workers in Yemen, highlighting the need for regular testing and rapid vaccination of all healthcare workers in the country.

A telephone based assessment of the health situation in the far north region of Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, Field access was considerably limited in the Far North region of Cameroon due to the conflict. Médecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in collaboration with Ministry of health needed to estimate the health situation of the populations living in two of the most affected departments of the region: Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Sava. METHODS: Access to health care and mortality rates were estimated through cell phone interviews, in 30 villages (clusters) in each department. Local Community Health Workers (CHWs) previously collected all household phone numbers in the selected villages and nineteen were randomly selected from each of them. In order to compare telephone interviews to face-to-face interviews for estimating health care access, and mortality rates, both methods were conducted in parallel in the town of Mora in the mayo Sava department. Access to food was assessed through push messages sent by the three main mobile network operators in Cameroon. Additionally, all identified legal health care facilities in the area were interviewed by phone to estimate attendance and services offered before the conflict and at the date of the survey. RESULTS: Of a total of 3423 households called 43% were reached. Over 600,000 push messages sent and only 2255 were returned. We called 43 health facilities and reached 34 of them. In The town of Mora, telephone interviews showed a Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) at 0.30 (CI 95%: 0.16-0.43) death per 10,000-person per day and home visits showed a CMR at 0.16 (0.05-0.27), most other indicators showed comparable results except household composition (more Internally Displaced Persons by telephone). Phone interviews showed a CMR at 0.63 (0.29-0.97) death per 10,000-person per day in Logone-et-Chari, and 0.30 (0.07-0.50) per 10,000-person per day in Mayo-Sava. Among 86 deaths, 13 were attributed to violence (15%), with terrorist attacks being explicitly mentioned for seven deaths. Among 29 health centres, 5 reported being attacked and vandalized; 3 remained temporally closed; Only 4 reported not being affected. CONCLUSION: Telephone interviews are feasible in areas with limited access, although special attention should be paid to the initial collection of phone numbers. The use of text messages to collect data was not satisfactory is not recommended for this purpose. Mortality in Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Sava was under critical humanitarian thresholds although a considerable number of deaths were directly related to the conflict.

Correction to: Suspected paracetamol overdose in Monrovia, Liberia: a matched case-control Study.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Suspected paracetamol overdose in Monrovia, Liberia: a matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: A cluster of cases of unexplained multi-organ failure was reported in children at Bardnesville Junction Hospital (BJH), Monrovia, Liberia. Prior to admission, children's caregivers reported antibiotic, antimalarial, paracetamol, and traditional treatment consumption. Since we could not exclude a toxic aetiology, and paracetamol overdose in particular, we implemented prospective syndromic surveillance to better define the clinical characteristics of these children. To investigate risk factors, we performed a case-control study. METHODS: The investigation was conducted in BJH between July 2015 and January 2016. In-hospital syndromic surveillance identified children with at least two of the following symptoms: respiratory distress with normal pulse oximetry while breathing ambient air; altered consciousness; hypoglycaemia; jaundice; and hepatomegaly. After refining the case definition to better reflect potential risk factors for hepatic dysfunction, we selected cases identified from syndromic surveillance for a matched case-control study. Cases were matched with in-hospital and community-based controls by age, sex, month of illness/admission, severity (in-hospital), and proximity of residence (community). RESULTS: Between July and December 2015, 77 case-patients were captured by syndromic surveillance; 68 (88%) were under three years old and 35 (46%) died during hospitalisation. Of these 77, 30 children met our case definition and were matched with 53 hospital and 48 community controls. Paracetamol was the most frequently reported medication taken by the cases and both control groups. The odds of caregivers reporting supra-therapeutic paracetamol consumption prior to admission was higher in cases compared to controls (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.1-21.3). Plasma paracetamol concentration on day of admission was available for 19 cases and exceeded 10 µg/mL in 10/13 samples collected on day one of admission, and 4/9 (44%) collected on day two. CONCLUSIONS: In a context with limited diagnostic capacity, this study highlights the possibility of supratherapeutic doses of paracetamol as a factor in multi-organ failure in a cohort of children admitted to BJH. In this setting, a careful history of pre-admission paracetamol consumption may alert clinicians to the possibility of overdose, even when confirmatory laboratory analysis is unavailable. Further studies may help define additional toxicological characteristics in such contexts to improve diagnoses.

Evaluating lactate prognostic value in children suspected of acetaminophen-induced liver failure in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of hyperlactatemia in young children with liver injury suspected to be attributed to repeated supratherapeutic doses of acetaminophen remain understudied. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective medical chart review including children aged <5 years admitted with hepatocellular injury. The study was conducted in Bardnesville Junction Hospital operated by Médecins Sans Frontières in Monrovia, Liberia. RESULTS: We analyzed 95 children with liver injury in whom a blood lactate measurement on admission was available. Eighty children (84%) were aged <2 years; 49 children (52%) died during hospitalization. The median acetaminophen concentration on admission was 20 mg/L with 60 (70%) children presenting concentrations exceeding 10 mg/L. Median lactate was significantly higher in children who died (10.7 mmol/L; interquartile range (IQR): 8.5-15.7) than those who survived (6.1 mmol/L; IQR: 4.1-8.5), P value < 0.001). The optimal threshold obtained was 7.2 mmol/L with a sensitivity of 84% and specificity 70% (area under curve = 0.80). The previously established thresholds of 3.5 and 4 mmol/L lactate had very low specificity identifying non-survival in children included in this study. CONCLUSION: In this setting, young children with ALF possibly attributed to acetaminophen toxicity were unlikely to survive if the venous blood lactate concentration exceeded 7.2 mmol/L.

Barriers to access to visceral leishmaniasis diagnosis and care among seasonal mobile workers in Western Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia bears a high burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Early access to VL diagnosis and care improves clinical prognosis and reduces transmission from infected humans; however, significant obstacles exist. The approximate 250,000 seasonal mobile workers (MW) employed annually in northwestern Ethiopia may be particularly disadvantaged and at risk of VL acquisition and death. Our study aimed to assess barriers, and recommend interventions to increase access, to VL diagnosis and care among MWs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2017, 50 interviews and 11 focus group discussions were conducted with MWs, mobile residents, VL patients and caretakers, community leaders and healthcare workers in Kafta Humera District, Tigray. Participants reported high vulnerability to VL among MWs and residents engaged in transitory work. Multiple visits to health facilities were consistently needed to access VL diagnosis. Inadequate healthcare worker training, diagnostic test kit unavailability at the primary healthcare level, lack of VL awareness, insufficient finances for care-seeking and prioritization of income-generating activities were significant barriers to diagnosis and care. Social (decision-making and financial) support strongly and positively influenced care-seeking; workers unable to receive salary advances, compensation for partial work, or peer assistance for contract completion were particularly disadvantaged. Participants recommended the government/stakeholders intervene to ensure: MWs access to bed-nets, food, shelter, water, and healthcare at farms or sick leave; decentralization of diagnostic tests to primary healthcare facilities; surplus medications/staff during the peak season; improved referral/feedback/reporting/training within the health system; free comprehensive healthcare for all VL-related services; and community health education. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Contrary to what health policy for VL dictates in this endemic setting, study participants reported very poor access to diagnosis and, consequently, significantly delayed access to treatment. Interventions tailored to the socio-economic and health needs of MWs (and other persons suffering from VL) are urgently needed to reduce health disparities and the VL burden.

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016-18: an analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak. METHODS: The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model. FINDINGS: From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median Rt of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31-1·55) compared with a week without rain. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen. FUNDING: Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières.

Micro-Hotspots of Risk in Urban Cholera Epidemics.

Targeted interventions have been delivered to neighbors of cholera cases in major epidemic responses globally despite limited evidence for the impact of such targeting. Using data from urban epidemics in Chad and Democratic Republic of the Congo, we estimate the extent of spatiotemporal zones of increased cholera risk around cases. In both cities, we found zones of increased risk of at least 200 meters during the 5 days immediately after case presentation to a clinic. Risk was highest for those living closest to cases and diminished in time and space similarly across settings. These results provide a rational basis for rapidly delivering targeting interventions.

Highly targeted cholera vaccination campaigns in urban setting are feasible: The experience in Kalemie, Democratic Republic of Congo.

INTRODUCTION: Oral cholera vaccines are primarily recommended by the World Health Organization for cholera control in endemic countries. However, the number of cholera vaccines currently produced is very limited and examples of OCV use in endemic countries, and especially in urban settings, are scarce. A vaccination campaign was organized by Médecins Sans Frontières and the Ministry of Health in a highly endemic area in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study aims to describe the vaccine coverage achieved with this highly targeted vaccination campaign and the acceptability among the vaccinated communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a cross-sectional survey using random spatial sampling. The study population included individuals one year old and above, eligible for vaccination, and residing in the areas targeted for vaccination in the city of Kalemie. Data sources were household interviews with verification by vaccination card. In total 2,488 people were included in the survey. Overall, 81.9% (95%CI: 77.9-85.3) of the target population received at least one dose of vaccine. The vaccine coverage with two doses was 67.2% (95%CI: 61.9-72.0) among the target population. The vaccine coverage was higher during the first round (74.0, 95%CI: 69.3-78.3) than during the second round of vaccination (69.1%, 95%CI: 63.9-74.0). Vaccination coverage was lower in male adults. The main reason for non-vaccination was to be absent during the campaign. No severe adverse events were notified during the interviews. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera vaccination campaigns using highly targeted strategies are feasible in urban settings. High vaccination coverage can be obtained using door to door vaccination. However, alternative strategies should be considered to reach non-vaccinated populations like male adults and also in order to improve the efficiency of the interventions.

Risk factors for measles mortality and the importance of decentralized case management during an unusually large measles epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013.

In 2013, a large measles epidemic occurred in the Aketi Health Zone of the Democratic Republic of Congo. We conducted a two-stage, retrospective cluster survey to estimate the attack rate, the case fatality rate, and the measles-specific mortality rate during the epidemic. 1424 households containing 7880 individuals were included. The estimated attack rate was 14.0%, (35.0% among children aged <5 years). The estimated case fatality rate was 4.2% (6.1% among children aged <5 years). Spatial analysis and linear regression showed that younger children, those who did not receive care, and those living farther away from Aketi Hospital early in the epidemic had a higher risk of measles related death. Vaccination coverage prior to the outbreak was low (76%), and a delayed reactive vaccination campaign contributed to the high attack rate. We provide evidences suggesting that a comprehensive case management approach reduced measles fatality during this epidemic in rural, inaccessible resource-poor setting.

The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.

Four years of case-based surveillance of meningitis following the introduction of MenAfriVac in Moissala, Chad: lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE: Case-based surveillance of bacterial meningitis in sentinel districts has been recommended after the introduction of the conjugated vaccine against Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA), MenAfriVac, in the African meningitis belt. Here we report data and lessons learnt from four years of surveillance in the district of Moissala, Chad. METHODS: All suspected cases of meningitis were referred free of charge to the district hospital for lumbar puncture and treatment. Cerebrospinal fluid samples were tested with Pastorex latex agglutination in Moissala, and inoculated trans-isolate media were used for culture and PCR at the national reference laboratory and/or at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. RESULTS: From July 2012 to December 2016, 237 suspected cases of meningitis were notified, and a specimen was collected from 224. Eighty-three samples were positive for a bacterial pathogen by culture, PCR or Pastorex, including 58 cases due to Streptococcus pneumoniae with only 28 of 49 pneumococcal meningitis confirmed by culture or PCR correctly identified by Pastorex. Four cases of NmA were detected by Pastorex, but none were confirmed by PCR. CONCLUSION: Implementation of case-based surveillance for meningitis is feasible in Chad, but has required political and technical engagement. Given the high proportion of S. pneumoniae and its poor detection by Pastorex, continued use of PCR is warranted for surveillance outside of outbreaks, and efforts to accelerate the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines are needed. Introduction of MenAfriVac in routine immunisation and future availability of a pentavalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine will be key elements for the sustained reduction in meningitis outbreaks in the area.

Retrospective mortality among refugees from the Central African Republic arriving in Chad, 2014.

BACKGROUND: The Central African Republic has known long periods of instability. In 2014, following the fall of an interim government installed by the Séléka coalition, a series of violent reprisals occurred. These events were largely directed at the country's Muslim minority and led to a massive displacement of the population. In 2014, we sought to document the retrospective mortality among refugees arriving from the CAR into Chad by conducting a series of surveys. METHODS: The Sido camp was surveyed exhaustively in March-April 2014 and a systematic sampling strategy was used in the Goré camp in October 2014. The survey recall period began November 1, 2013, just before the major anti-Balaka offensive. Heads of households were asked to describe their household composition at the beginning of and throughout the recall period. For household members reported as dying, further information about the date and circumstances of death was obtained. RESULTS: In Sido, 3449 households containing 25 353 individuals were interviewed. A total of 2599 deaths were reported, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 6.0/10000 persons/day, and 8% of the population present at the beginning of the recall period died. Most (82.4%) deaths occurred among males, most deaths occurred in December 2013 and January 2014, and 92% were due to violence in the CAR. In Goré, 1383 households containing 8614 individuals were interviewed. A total of 1203 deaths were reported, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 3.7/10000 persons/day [95%CI 3.5-3.9], and 12% of the population present at the beginning of the recall period died. Most (77.1%) deaths occurred among males. As in Sido, most deaths occurred in December 2013 and January 2014, and 86% of all deaths were due to violence in the CAR. CONCLUSIONS: The results of these two surveys describe a part of the toll of the violent events of December 2013 and January 2014 in the Central African Republic.

Quantitative survey on health and violence endured by refugees during their journey and in Calais, France.

Background: In 2015, more than 1 million refugees arrived in Europe. During their travels, refugees often face harsh conditions, violence and torture in transit countries, but there is a lack of quantitative evidence on their experiences. We present the results of a retrospective survey among refugees in the 'Jungle' of Calais, France, to document their health problems and the violence they endured during their journeys. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey in November and December 2015. The sample size was set at 402 individuals, and geospatial simple random sampling was used. We collected data on demographics, routes travelled, health status, violence and future plans. Results: Departures from the country of origin increased beginning in September 2015. Sixty-one percent of respondents reported having at least one health problem, especially while in Calais. Overall, 65.6% (95% CI 60.3-70.6) experienced at least one violent event en route; 81.5% of refugees wanted to go to the UK. Conclusions: This first quantitative survey conducted among refugees in Europe provides important socio-demographic data on refugees living in Calais and describes the high rate of violence they encountered during their journeys. Similar documentation should be repeated throughout Europe in order to better respond to the needs of this vulnerable population.